personal investment blog

Report on Q2 2018

Report on Q2 2018

5 Jul 2018

In Q1 the main UK indexes fell by between 6% and 8%. In Q2, they rose by 7% to 8%. The chart of the first six months is a “V” or perhaps a two-fingered salute to all the financial commentators who claim knowledge of the future. Bond yields again did almost nothing.   I have written elsewhere about the prevailing mood that seems to try to put a pessimistic spin...

Report on Q1 2018

Report on Q1 2018

30 Mar 2018

In my report on Q4, I wrote that “for the third successive quarter, the markets were mysteriously calm.” The calm was disrupted in Q1 for sure: the main UK indexes fell by between 6% and 8%. The German DAX was -6.3%. Supported by a falling dollar, the US markets, though volatile, did better with the DJIA -2.5%. I hinted before that the stock markets might be...

Report on Q4 2017

Report on Q4 2017

4 Jan 2018

For the third successive quarter, the markets were mysteriously calm. Long term government bond yields barely stirred again. Bunds yielded 0.44% in September and they yield 0.44% today. The range, if that word applies, of gilts has been almost as tight. The UK stock markets slow-marched upwards in step in Q4: FTSE 100 +4.4%, FTSE 250 +4.5%, FTSE All Share...

Report on Q3 2017

Report on Q3 2017

3 Oct 2017

In the Q2 report I said that the stock market had been amazingly calm. The amazement intensified in Q3. Political and economic commentators are so certain of impending collapse that they can hardly get the words out quickly enough. The politicians themselves are cringing in response, like the invertebrates that most of them sadly appear to be. You can be sure...

Report on Q2 2017

Report on Q2 2017

5 Jul 2017

The UK stock market was on a rollercoaster ride to nowhere in Q2. The FTSE 100 fell by -0.3% and the 250 managed a rise of +1.8%. Given that we had a shock election, a shock result, a hung parliament and that the shadow Chancellor thinks that democracy has failed, you could say that the stock market has been amazingly calm. Likewise the government bond market....

Report on Q1 2017

Report on Q1 2017

1 Apr 2017

The UK stock market had a sound quarter with the post Brexit vote devaluation effect fading. The FTSE 250 resumed its customary outperformance. It rose by 5.1% in Q1 compared to 2.9% for the FTSE. This is typically a sign that people are feeling less defensive or fearful. Given the somewhat alarmist nature of news headlines in the last months this might seem...

Report on Q4 2016

Report on Q4 2016

13 Jan 2017

The UK stock market continued to climb the wall of fear or crawl forward in the sea of uncertainty or whatever you will in Q4. The FTSE 100 outperformed the FTSE 250 for the third time (out of four quarters) in 2016. Rising interest rates helped the UK banks index rise by 16% in the quarter. Some people think that lending margins will improve as interest rates...

Report on Q3 2016

Report on Q3 2016

5 Oct 2016

The second quarter ended just after the Brexit vote and the stock markets were in a state of shock. The FTSE 100, which is where frightened investors go to hide, had one of its rare periods of outperformance over the FTSE 250 in Q2. (The FTSE 100 includes large multinational businesses, the FTSE 250 is a better reflection of the UK economy). In Q3, the FTSE 100...

Report on Q2 2016

Report on Q2 2016

6 Jul 2016

On the face of it, the quarter was dominated by the UK Brexit referendum decision on 24 June though, in the main, trends were consistent throughout the quarter. The FTSE 100, which delivers its rare moments of outperformance in times of nervousness, had continued to do better than the FTSE 250 up to 23 June. After the referendum result this trend was...

Report on Q1 2016

Report on Q1 2016

8 Apr 2016

Following a nervous rally in Q4, in Q1 the UK stock market was merely nervous. For the first time in seven quarters, the FTSE 100 (-1.2%) outperformed the FTSE 250 (-3.0%). This is a small indication that investors were becoming more worried about the outlook for earnings, I suppose. Since the Fed made the first tiny upward move in rates (0.25% in December),...

Report on Q4 2015

Report on Q4 2015

5 Jan 2016

Following a very wobbly third quarter, we saw a nervous rally in Q4. As usual, the FTSE 250 (+4.5%) did better than the All Share (+3.5%) and the FTSE 100 (+3.1%). As a reminder, over ten years the 250 has performed more than ten times as well as the 100, yet index trackers continue to offer the 100 or the All Share (than which the 250 returned 5x over 10...

Report on Q3 2015

Report on Q3 2015

2 Oct 2015

According a chap on Bloomberg TV, $11 trillion was lost from the value of global equities in Q3. The FTSE 100 fell by 10.2% and the FTSE 250, as usual doing better, fell by 5.8%. In the three years since I set up this website, the FTSE 100 is up by just 5.6% and the FTSE 250 by 42.2% which is a shocking disparity. The FTSE 100 is the top 100 companies by market...

Report on Q2 2015

Report on Q2 2015

6 Jul 2015

In Q2 the FTSE 100 fell by 3.3% but the FTSE 250 was up by 2.8%. In the first half year of 2015, the FTSE 100 was flat but the 250 was +9.2%. This divergence is probably indicative of two factors. The FTSE 100 is heavily weighted with banks and resource and mining stocks, few of which have looked like attractive investments for some years. The 250 is more...

Report on Q1 2015

Report on Q1 2015

30 Mar 2015

In Q1 the FTSE 100 rose by 3.3% and the FTSE 250 by 6.4%. The FTSE 250 is probably more sensitive to the domestic economy (or at least to how investors are feeling about it). The FTSE 100 has larger more global businesses including, of course, oil companies and banks, which received another kicking in the recent budget. That last point is a salutary reminder...

Report on Q4 2014

Report on Q4 2014

5 Jan 2015

In a confusing financial and political world in Q4, the UK stock market offered small but notable evidence of calm in as much as the FTSE 250 (+4.5%) easily outpeformed the FTSE 100 (-0.9%), reversing the trend seen in Q2 and Q3. Normally, larger shares perform better in nervous times as they are seen as safer havens. In the case of this quarter, the collapse...

Report on Q3 2014

Report on Q3 2014

4 Oct 2014

The stock market remained nervous, reportedly seeing below-average turnover in Q3. The trend that began in Q2, of the shares of smaller companies performing worse, continued. The FTSE 100 fell by 1.7% and the FTSE 250 by 2.9%. For the third quarter in a row, yields on European government bonds fell to previously unimaginable lows. German 10 year Bund yields...

Report on Q2 2014

Report on Q2 2014

3 Jul 2014

I have noted before that it is generally the case that smaller companies’ share prices are relative beneficiaries of improving confidence. Large blue chips do better when investors are seeking protection. In Q2, the FTSE 100 rose by 2.2% but the FTSE 250 (companies 101-350) fell by 3.4%. There has been widespread profit taking from the shares where much of last...

Report on Q1 2014

Report on Q1 2014

22 Apr 2014

The FTSE 100 fell by 2.2% in the quarter. The FTSE 250 (that’s companies from 101 to 350) rose by 2.1%. I wrote in the Q4 report that it is generally the case that smaller companies’ share prices are relative beneficiaries of improving confidence. Large blue chips do better when investors are seeking protection. It is worth noting that in the first three weeks...

Report on Q4 2013

Report on Q4 2013

7 Jan 2014

The FTSE 100 rose by 4.4% in the quarter for a full year gain of 13.9%. The FTSE 250 (that’s companies from 101 to 350) performed twice as well in 2013, rising by 28.8%. There are never truly hard factual reasons why share prices move but it generally remains the case that smaller companies’ share prices are relative beneficiaries of improving confidence. Large...

Report on Q3 2013

Report on Q3 2013

2 Oct 2013

The FTSE rose by 3.9% in the quarter (Q1 +8.7%, Q2 -3.0%) meaning that year-to-date it is +9.2%. I didn’t recommend a single new share in the quarter. This is partly because I was away in France, but is also because no compelling new ideas turned up. City analysts are expected to come up with recommendations (usually ‘Buy’s) regularly but real people don’t have...