personal investment blog

Report on Q1 2018

Report on Q1 2018

30 Mar 2018

In my report on Q4, I wrote that “for the third successive quarter, the markets were mysteriously calm.” The calm was disrupted in Q1 for sure: the main UK indexes fell by between 6% and 8%. The German DAX was -6.3%. Supported by a falling dollar, the US markets, though volatile, did better with the DJIA -2.5%. I hinted before that the stock markets might be...

Report on Q4 2013

Report on Q4 2013

7 Jan 2014

The FTSE 100 rose by 4.4% in the quarter for a full year gain of 13.9%. The FTSE 250 (that’s companies from 101 to 350) performed twice as well in 2013, rising by 28.8%. There are never truly hard factual reasons why share prices move but it generally remains the case that smaller companies’ share prices are relative beneficiaries of improving confidence. Large...

Report on Q3 2013

Report on Q3 2013

2 Oct 2013

The FTSE rose by 3.9% in the quarter (Q1 +8.7%, Q2 -3.0%) meaning that year-to-date it is +9.2%. I didn’t recommend a single new share in the quarter. This is partly because I was away in France, but is also because no compelling new ideas turned up. City analysts are expected to come up with recommendations (usually ‘Buy’s) regularly but real people don’t have...

Report on Q2 2013

Report on Q2 2013

5 Jul 2013

The FTSE fell by 3% in the quarter meaning, obviously, that the easy wins of Q1 (+8.7%) were unavailable. My Q1 recommendations of Enterprise Inns and Go-Ahead trod water. Home Retail Group fell after its last trading update, apparently on the basis that the rain kept people away from Homebase. Such absurdities provide buying opportunities for investors and...

Yields are usually for a reason

Yields are usually for a reason

12 Jun 2013

Investment is betting on probabilities, not on outcomes. How can we judge if the probability of an event is over-priced or under-priced? Do not try to guess the probability of an outcome with a view to pricing it. Do ask when the price is telling you about the probability – then ask yourself if this is reasonable. For obvious reasons, investors are now very...

ICAP – a secret utility company?

ICAP – a secret utility company?

14 May 2013

ICAP released its 2012 results today. They were agreeably dull after a number of blows to the share price coming from stories about regulatory investigations including reports that it was being linked to the Libor scandal. At first sight, the statement from CEO Spencer suggests a pretty bad year: This has been an extraordinarily tough year in the wholesale...

Report on Q1 2013

Report on Q1 2013

26 Mar 2013

I will review the success of my own advice every quarter because it looks like a good discipline and it feels like the chance to brag or whine, both of which could be satisfying. First, the share tips. My first ever post in November suggested that Enterprise Inns was probably worth more than 67p and suggested 120p as a possibility. Today’s price of 109p...

Why I am buying ICAP plc

Why I am buying ICAP plc

10 Jan 2013

At first glance, ICAP looks like the kind of company that I don’t like to invest in. It is a financial service business whose employees are well rewarded for success. The normal problem with such companies is an implicit conflict of interest in that the shareholders find themselves in competition with the employees for a share of the added value....