10 Nov 2025
Why is it that lockdown, introduced as a measure to combat the Covid19 pandemic, is such a non-subject? Is there anyone who still thinks it was a good idea?
As a reminder; from a Parliamentary website, recording the hundreds of new laws that needed to be passed…..
First national lockdown (March to June 2020)
All “non-essential” high street businesses were closed and people were ordered to stay at home, permitted to leave for essential purposes only, such as buying food or for medical reasons..
Minimal lockdown restrictions (July to September 2020)
Reimposing restrictions (September to October 2020)
The Government rationalised local restrictions by introducing a “three tier system”. At first, most of the country was placed in the least restrictive tier one, which had similar restrictions to the previous national rules. As time went on, more of the country was placed in the higher two tiers.
Second national lockdown (November 2020)
On 5 November, national restrictions were reintroduced in England. During the second national lockdown, non-essential high street businesses were closed, and people were prohibited from meeting those not in their “support bubble” inside. People could leave home to meet one person from outside their support bubble outdoors.
Reintroducing a tiered system (December 2020)
On 2 December, the tiered system was reintroduced with modifications.
On 19 December, the Prime Minister announced that a fourth tier would be introduced.
The tier four rules were like those imposed during the second national lockdown. On 30 December, after the first review of tiers under the new system, around 75% of the country was placed under tier four restrictions.
Third national lockdown (January to March 2021)
Following concerns that the four-tier system was not containing the spread of the Alpha variant, national restrictions were reintroduced for a third time on 6 January.
The rules during the third lockdown were more like those in the first lockdown. People were once again told to stay at home. However, people could still form support bubbles (if eligible) and some gatherings were exempted from the gatherings ban (for example, religious services and some small weddings were permitted).
Leaving lockdown (March to July 2021)
On 8 March 2021, England began a phased exit from lockdown. A four-step plan, known as the roadmap out of lockdown, intended to “cautiously but irreversibly” ease lockdown restrictions. England moved through the roadmap as planned but step four was delayed by four weeks to allow more people to receive their first dose of a coronavirus vaccine.
That was the best part of eighteen months and for me it is a very difficult read. As they say, we’ll never get that time back.
THEY KNEW WHAT THEY HAD DONE – VACCINES OFFERED A WAY OUT
Much as I despise the spineless faux-technocrats who imposed this assault on the nation, I think the last paragraph in blue suggests that many of them knew what a mess they had made. Vaccines, even rushed through with inadequate testing, provided a vaguely plausible way out. In order for that to happen the technocrats needed to decree that the vaccines were both effective and safe. Anyone who disagreed was un-personed, fired or threatened with prosecution or sometimes all three.
Pretty much everyone (including me) wanted to believe in the vaccines and reports of negative side effects were met with blanket denial, memorably in the football world. Those who declined to be injected were vilified, even by sensible journalists, and were illogically accused of putting others at risk.
Could a vaccinated person yet be endangered by an unvaccinated person? Yes. The definition of “vaccine” was officially changed from “immunity” to “protection” when you caught the virus. This is not what I thought I had signed up to.
But, no matter. If we accept that vaccines were essentially a performative excuse for ending lockdown, then thank goodness for vaccines.
Unfortunately and perhaps unforgiveably, the demands of vaccine theatre meant that their benefits must be exaggerated and their risks minimized to the point that those needles were aimed at children, who had surely already been the most egregious victims of lockdown.
THE LASTING FINANCIAL DAMAGE
Not only was lockdown very expensive (£450 billion vs £445 billion for the global financial crisis, in terms of extra QE by the Bank of England) but most of the money was directed at projects that made things worse. Furlough payments begat working from home which soon became hard to distinguish from not working at all. Working age health-related benefits (presumably named to imply that, if things were different, their recipients could earn money), were £36 billion in FY 2020 and rose by 40% by FY 2024.
The result is that the UK is struggling to service its existing borrowing and appears to be doomed to increase its debt inexorably.
Now I am puzzled. I don’t hear or read people who claim to believe that lockdowns were a great idea. But nor do I hear many who agree with me that they were a disastrous mistake. Surely the first step of correcting a mistake is to admit it. Lockdown is invariably referred to as “the pandemic”, almost as if Covid was a viral phenomenon that removed agency from people.
THE SHAME OF BEING FOOLED
Musing on this I have realised that falling for lockdowns was the equal of falling victim to a huge scam. This is not a conspiracy theory. It is quite possible that the faux-technocrats thought they were doing the right thing. It is also likely that when some of them realised the enormity of what they had done, they were too heavily implicated to admit their mistakes.
The first emotion of realising that you have been scammed is shame and shame is not an easy topic of conversation. According to Mr Google, 69% of victims suffer a decline in their mental health and may well.be unable to work (see above).
The big rational question that we have to ask ourselves is, how did we fall for that? It suddenly seems such an obvious error..
One of the essentials of scamming is to gain the confidence of the victim. In 2020 this was done by constantly promising safety. Not only for yourself but also for the NHS. What kind of heel would spurn that request? Telling strangers to “keep safe” became a pandemic in itself.
Instead of urging people to look after themselves (except by staying home) the population was encouraged to retreat back towards immaturity and irresponsibility, where even obligations towards family, young and old, were discouraged.
Essentially, the answer to my question of “how did we fall for that?” seems to be that many of our fellow citizens were effectively infanticised.
It may be for this reason that the world appears to be embracing Artificial Intelligence. The idea that AI will make better decisions than we can, appeals only to people whose capacity for thought has already been somehow disconnected. So disconnected that the knowledge that we will never know whether the AI option is good or true is seemingly untroubling.
WILL PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY MAKE A COME-BACK?
As an investor, I expect an eventual revival of personal responsibility. The idea that people who do not work and earn have the right to a standard of living equivalent to those who do must surely be doomed; if it is not immoral it is unsustainable. Moreover, further government borrowing will need to be financed by responsible people making rational decisions. Modern Monetary Theory that believes in endless money printing is another scam.
The probable outcome of economic fantasy is inflation and currency devaluation, both preferable to default, which is how a state declares itself bankrupt. An investor’s first instinct may be to get his assets the hell out of the country. Though the question of where he goes is hard. Inflation and devaluation are highly fashionable these days; and many people will feel obliged to follow their own money and relocate themselves.
One option, which has clearly been popular, is to seek refuge in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. This appears to offer the chance of escape from unreliable governments, elected or not.
My problem with this is that it might be another example of escapism, dressed up as sophistication. The fervour of Bitcoin believers reminds me of vaccine proponents. They can conceive of no version of reality in which they are wrong, even though reason argues that both Bitcoin and Covid Vaccines will fade away without a fresh supply of supporters.
REAL ASSETS
The safest haven will normally be real assets. In the UK this generally means land or property. The property market is currently feeling very nervous due to worries about interest rates and various taxes that might appear in the next budget on 26 November. The bungling Labour policies of encouraging new building while apparently doing everything it can to disincentivise it looks likely to result in a surplus of unwanted flats in South-East England in particular.
Perhaps there will be bargains available at some point.