10 Nov 2025

Why is it that lockdown, introduced as a measure to combat the Covid19 pandemic, is such a non-subject? Is there anyone who still thinks it was a good idea? As a reminder; from a Parliamentary website, recording the hundreds of new laws that needed to be passed….. First national lockdown (March to June 2020) All “non-essential” high street businesses were closed and people were ordered to stay at home, permitted to leave for essential purposes only, such as buying food or for medical reasons.. Minimal lockdown restrictions (July to September 2020) Reimposing restrictions (September to October 2020) The Government rationalised local restrictions by introducing a “three tier system”. At first, most of the country was placed in the least restrictive tier one, which had similar restrictions to the previous national rules. As time went on, more of the country was placed in the higher two tiers. Second national lockdown (November 2020) On 5 November, national restrictions were reintroduced in England. During the second national lockdown, non-essential high street businesses were closed, and people were prohibited from meeting those not in their “support bubble” inside. People could leave home to meet one person from outside their support bubble outdoors. Reintroducing a tiered system (December 2020) On 2 December, the tiered system was reintroduced with modifications. On 19 December, the Prime Minister announced that a fourth tier would be introduced. The tier four rules were like those imposed during the second national lockdown. On 30 December, after the first review of tiers under the new system, around 75% of the country was placed under tier four restrictions. Third national lockdown (January to March 2021) Following concerns that the four-tier system was not containing the spread of the Alpha variant, national restrictions were reintroduced for a third time on 6 January. The rules during the third lockdown were more like those in the first lockdown. People were once again told to stay at home. However, people could still form support bubbles (if eligible) and some gatherings were exempted from the gatherings ban (for example, religious services and some small weddings were permitted). Leaving lockdown (March to July 2021) On 8 March 2021, England began a phased exit...

8 Jul 2024

Once again, bombarded with deafening assertions that the world is falling apart, blowing up or melting, markets were an example of rather dull stability. The FTSE followed its 2.8% rise in Q1 with exactly the same in Q2. That makes an increase of 8.6%, year on year. Not bad. Government bond markets were slightly more interesting. Once again, yields rose generally, despite the fact that the world is apparently waiting for lower interest rates. Gilts from 4% to 4.2%, Treasuries from 4.3% to 4.3% and Bunds from 2.3% to 2.55%.  Many interest cut groupies are telling themselves that the quantity of national elections, especially in the US, UK and France, would make rate changes look political. I sincerely hope that central bank independence is firmer than that, though the Bank of England arguably has poor form in this respect.  But we should always remember that bond investors care mostly about inflation, the great enemy of fixed returns. If bond prices are falling (yields rising) there will be an underlying mistrust of the inflation outlook.  The UK has elected a Labour government that has for years complained about Tory austerity. Since 2010 national debt has risen from 76% of GDP to 100%. On the basis that you should always experiment with the idea that people are telling you the truth, one can assume that Labour wishes to explode this number through 110% or 120% or something. If you are thinking of adding gilts to your portfolio it might make sense to wait a...