REPORT ON Q1 2025

The first quarter ended just before Donald Trump’s “liberation day” when his tariff announcements sent world stock markets into something close to panic. So it is notable that UK stock markets were more concerned with what was happening at home. Rachel Reeves made a Spring Budget Statement which was provoked by cuts in growth forecasts on the part of the facetiously named Office of Budget Responsibility, a political vanity project by the 2011 Chancellor George Osborne.  In the opinion of many people, the Reeves Autumn Budget contained a number of measures that hurt growth prospects, especially for domestic businesses which have seen their costs of employment rise. Whatever your political leanings, transferring resources from the private sector to the public sector is rarely good economics. So, it is arguable that the Spring difficulty was largely due to the Chancellor’s own Autumn blunders.   Consequently, the FTSE 250 index, which is populated by domestically exposed companies dramatically underperformed the FTSE 100, which is represented by international businesses – that is -5.4% compared to +5.1%. I do not recall ever having seen such a stark divergence.   Lower growth prospects are normally at least good for lower borrowing costs. But not this time. The ten year gilt yield was 4.57% on 1st January and that is where it remains today. The UK government is developing a small perceived counterparty risk. In the long run, economic growth is key to any government’s ability to repay. Debt servicing costs are now uncomfortably high and some Labour MPs are already making squeaks of protest about “austerity”, a word whose meaning has changed from deliberately inflicted short-term deprivation to any tiny disruption in the flow of public money.  It is hardly surprising that the UK stock market has been in a depressed mood. When the “liberation day” fallout was at its depth, I put in some grudging low bids for a few shares, because you have to buy when everyone else is selling. As for the tariffs, Donald Trump has thought for many years that international trade takes place between nations and this should be discouraged. To this end, he taxes his own people with import tariffs. It also seems rather immoral...