The first quarter ended just before Donald Trump’s “liberation day” when his tariff announcements sent world stock markets into something close to panic. So it is notable that UK stock markets were more concerned with what was happening at home. Rachel Reeves made a Spring Budget Statement which was provoked by cuts in growth forecasts on the part of the facetiously named Office of Budget Responsibility, a political vanity project by the 2011 Chancellor George Osborne. In the opinion of many people, the Reeves Autumn Budget contained a number of measures that hurt growth prospects, especially for domestic businesses which have seen their costs of employment rise. Whatever your political leanings, transferring resources from the private sector to the public sector is rarely good economics. So, it is arguable that the Spring difficulty was largely due to the Chancellor’s own Autumn blunders. Consequently, the FTSE 250 index, which is populated by domestically exposed companies dramatically underperformed the FTSE 100, which is represented by international businesses – that is -5.4% compared to +5.1%. I do not recall ever having seen such a stark divergence. Lower growth prospects are normally at least good for lower borrowing costs. But not this time. The ten year gilt yield was 4.57% on 1st January and that is where it remains today. The UK government is developing a small perceived counterparty risk. In the long run, economic growth is key to any government’s ability to repay. Debt servicing costs are now uncomfortably high and some Labour MPs are already making squeaks of protest about “austerity”, a word whose meaning has changed from deliberately inflicted short-term deprivation to any tiny disruption in the flow of public money. It is hardly surprising that the UK stock market has been in a depressed mood. When the “liberation day” fallout was at its depth, I put in some grudging low bids for a few shares, because you have to buy when everyone else is selling. As for the tariffs, Donald Trump has thought for many years that international trade takes place between nations and this should be discouraged. To this end, he taxes his own people with import tariffs. It also seems rather immoral...
Home »
Posts Tagged "Rachel Reeves"
Blog topics
A
- ABN Amro
- academics
- accountability
- accounting
- Afghanistan
- AI
- airlines
- Alan Greenspan
- Aldi
- Amazon
- American Revolution
- Andrew Neil
- animals
- anti-gay laws
- APF
- appeasement
- architect sketch
- Argentina
- Argos
- ariculture
- armaments
- art
- asset purchase facility fund
- asset tax
- AstraZeneca
- auditors
- austerity
- more »« less
B
- baby boomers
- BAE
- balance sheets
- banking
- Bank of England
- bank rate
- banks
- Barton Biggs
- basel 3
- BBC
- Bede
- beef
- Being Mortal
- Belgium
- belief
- Benjamin Graham
- Bernard Levin
- BHS
- bias
- Biden
- big picture
- Billie Holiday
- Bill of Rights
- birth rates
- Bitcoin
- Black Lives Matter
- Black Wednesday
- blame
- Bloomberg
- borrowing
- bp
- BP.RDS
- Brené Brown
- brexit
- Brian Cox
- BT
- budget
- Buffett
- building societies
- buses
- butter
- more »« less
C
- California
- capex
- capital expenditure
- capitalism
- Carclo
- Carey
- Carillion
- carmarket
- Carrefour
- cars
- cash flow
- causation
- CBI
- Centrica
- centrica.gordon brown
- ceo
- change
- charity
- Charlie Munger
- cheese
- child labour
- China
- Churchill
- Church of England
- clean air
- climate
- clothing
- cloud computing
- cobalt
- commercial property
- commodities
- commodity prices
- Conservatives
- COP
- COP21
- COP26
- Corbyn
- Coronavirus
- corporate strategy
- correlation
- Covering Climate Now
- Covid
- Covid-19
- cranswick
- crisi
- crony capitalism
- crowdfunding
- crowds
- crypto currnecies
- curious incident
- currency
- cycle lanes
- cycling
- Cyprus
- more »« less
D
- Dairy Crest
- David Cameron
- Davos
- debasement
- Debenhams
- Debt Management Office
- defence spending
- deflation
- Dehli
- de la rue
- Delhi
- democracy
- Democrats
- demographics
- depression
- Descartes
- devaluation
- developing nations
- Dickens
- dictators
- Dignity
- district network operators
- dividends
- dividend yields
- Dixons
- dogs
- dollar
- Donald Trump
- drax
- DRC
- more »« less
E
- earning
- easyjet
- ECB
- education
- EI Group
- election
- electric cars
- electric vehicles
- electric vehicles.power stations
- electronic trading
- emergency powers
- employment
- energy costs
- energy prices
- energy security
- Enoch Powell
- Enron
- enterprise inns
- equities
- ESG
- EU
- EU deal
- eugenics
- euro
- europe
- European Union
- euro zone
- EVs
- executive boards
- Extintion rebellion
- more »« less
F
G
- G-20
- G7
- GDP
- General election
- Generation Rent
- geopolitics
- George Orwell
- George Osborne
- Germany
- gig economy
- Gilbert&Sullivan
- gilts
- girls
- Glaxo
- global GDP
- GM crops
- GM foods
- go ahead group
- god
- Goldman Sachs
- gold price trends
- gold standard
- Goodwin
- government bonds
- government borrowing
- government costs
- government debt
- grammar schools
- graphite
- great depression
- Great Gatsby
- Greece
- greed
- greene king
- green energy
- Greenwich
- Greggs
- Greta
- Greta Thunberg
- Grexit
- groucho
- growth
- Guardian
- Gulf war
- GVC
- more »« less
H
I
- Ian Dury
- icap plc
- Iceland
- IFRS 16
- IMF
- immigration
- Imperial Brands
- income inequality
- income tax
- index trackers
- India
- inequality
- inflation
- information technology
- infrastructure
- inheritance tax
- innovation
- interdealer brokers
- interest payments
- interest rates
- international law
- investment
- investment grade
- investment managers
- investment rules
- investors
- IRA
- Iraq war
- Italy
- more »« less
J
L
M
- Madoff
- management
- mansion tax
- Mark Carney
- Marks and Spencer
- marston's
- Matalan
- McCarthy & Stone
- McCarthy&Stone
- McDonalds
- meddling
- media
- merger
- Metro
- Mexico
- Michael Lewis
- Micro Focus
- middle class
- mitie
- mitie group
- MMT
- mobile payment
- Modi
- money
- Monty Hall
- Monty Python
- morality
- morrison
- mortgage rates
- Mumbai
- more »« less
N
O
P
- Palestine
- parcels
- Parliament
- Paul Simon
- pearson
- pensioners
- pension liabilities
- pensions
- pensions.capex
- pension surplus
- performance
- Persimmon.
- Peter Zeihan
- pets
- Pets at Home
- Pfizer
- PG Wodehouse
- pharma
- Philip Hammond
- philosophy
- PIIGS
- Pimco
- plastics
- political betting
- politicians
- politics
- ponzi
- population growth
- populism
- post
- poverty
- PPI
- precautionary principle
- price of gold
- privatisation
- probability
- problems
- profits
- property tax
- Proposition 13
- protectionism
- public transport
- pub sector
- Putin
- more »« less
R
- Rachel Reeves
- rating agencies
- rationing
- rbs
- recession
- recurring revenues
- Redbridge Council
- referendum
- regulators
- remain
- renewables
- retail sector
- retirement
- Richmal Compton
- rights issue
- Rishi Sunak
- rolls royce
- Roosevelt
- royal dutch
- royal dutch shell
- royal mail
- RSC
- Russia
- Russia.Germany
- ryanair
- more »« less
S
- SaaS
- Saga plc
- sage group
- sainsbury
- Saki
- salesforce.com
- sap ag
- saudi arabia
- Saul Bellow
- savings
- sceptic
- scepticism
- science
- Senior
- sex
- SHADOW BANKING
- share buy-backs
- share buybacks
- shareholders
- share repurchases
- Sherlock Holmes
- Shoe Zone
- slowdown
- software.maintenance revenues
- South Korea
- Squeeze
- Sri Lanka
- stagecoach
- Stage Coach
- start-ups
- state aid
- steel
- sterling
- stobart
- stockbroking
- stockpiling
- storm
- strategy
- student loans
- student loans sub-prime
- subprime loans
- subscription
- supermarkets
- Sweden
- Switzerland
- Syria
- more »« less
T
- taboo
- takeover bid
- takeovers
- tariffs
- Tata
- Tate&Lyle
- tax
- taxation
- taxea
- taxes
- tax evasion. tax avoidance
- tax increases
- tax reform
- TaylorWimpey
- taylor wimpey
- technology
- Tesco
- Tesla
- the clash
- The Graduate
- The Mikado
- Theresa May
- The Specials
- Today
- Tom Kerridge
- Tony Blair
- TP iCAP
- trade
- trade agreement
- trade deals
- trade war
- trains
- transport industry uk
- Trump
- Truss
- truth
- TTIP
- TTP
- more »« less
U
- Uber
- ubm
- uk credit rating downgrade
- uk gilts
- uk gilt trends
- uk government
- uk government bonds
- uk house prices
- uk housing market
- Ukraine
- uk sovereign credit rating
- UK student loans
- uk sub-prime
- UK Treasury
- UN
- uncertainty
- unemployment
- universities
- USA
- US dollar
- US presidential election
- USSR
- us student loans
- utility
- more »« less