Conventional theory holds that an inverted bond yield (in this case where the two year pays more than the ten year) is a negative economic forecast. I have never been quite clear on whether this is regarded as a causal relationship or simply an observable correlation. The former seems unlikely – that the sight of a threatening yield curve sparks widespread fear and recession follows as a result of cautious behaviour – but I have heard people talk as if that is the case. It seems more likely that inverted bond yields are a response to or a forecast of tough economic times. I prefer to remember that bond prices are the terms on which borrowers and lenders choose to trade. High short dated yields might imply inflationary fears but they also reflect the credibility, or lack of it, of the governments that need to borrow. Lower long dated yields imply scepticism about future growth but they also suggest the belief that returns from safe investments will revert to the modest levels that became normal in the last ten or so years. A DECADE OF BOND MARKET MANIPULATION MAY HAVE DISTORTED INVESTORS’ PERCEPTION The obvious flaw with the idea that low long term yields are normal is that it is probably wrong. We have been conditioned by more than ten years of government bond market manipulation by central banks. In some countries like the US, the UK and the Eurozone, central banks have led the way with QE. It is a matter of opinion as to how independent of government influence these central bank actions have been. The fact that they have de facto financed unprecedented government borrowing, first through the Great Financial Crisis aftermath and then through Covid-inspired lockdowns, speaks for itself. HISTORY OF UK 10 YEAR GILT YIELDS Here are UK ten year gilt yields since 1980. In the 80s they were in a 10-15% range and then a 5-10% range basically until 2008 when the estimated $60 trillion of outstanding credit default swaps began falling like dominoes, threatening numerous financial institutions around the world. The chart illustrates nicely the result of the critical need for cheap money around the world. In...